Kiper sees red flags with Watson, possible bust potential

[Robert Thorne MacRae]

ESPN Draft Analyst Mel Kiper on the four quarterbacks that could go in the first round.

"I think the reason why there's some red flags here with these quarterbacks is number one, Trubisky with only 13 starts has some inconsistent, uneven performances. Then you look at Deshaun Watson, struggled early in the year and then gets it together late. Then you think about Patrick Mahomes, coming out of that Red Raider offense is an automatic red flag. DeShone Kizer comes out with all that talent, but then has a disappointing year..All four of those have bust potential for those reasons, and three of those four are probably going to go in the first round."

[Clemson2016]

Originally Posted by Robert Thorne MacRae

ESPN Draft Analyst Mel Kiper on the four quarterbacks that could go in the first round.

"I think the reason why there's some red flags here with these quarterbacks is number one, Trubisky with only 13 starts has some inconsistent, uneven performances. Then you look at Deshaun Watson, struggled early in the year and then gets it together late. Then you think about Patrick Mahomes, coming out of that Red Raider offense is an automatic red flag. DeShone Kizer comes out with all that talent, but then has a disappointing year..All four of those have bust potential for those reasons, and three of those four are probably going to go in the first round."

I just dont get all the love for Kizer, that guy sucks.

[tiger68]

This is a perfect example of the talking heads from all of the networks and sports columnists looking for something to talk about to justify their jobs and ratings. For the last three months it has been non-stop regurgitating meaningless diatribes on who will be drafted when, who will make it, who will be a bust, etc. and bottom line it's all BS. If any of them have a crystal ball, I want them to give me some lottery numbers.

With the sports networks (espn especially) struggling and cutting back, all of the "experts" are vying for ratings to keep their job, a non of them know what a NFL team is going to do.

I am ready for the draft so this non-sense will be over, then it will be back to the normal dis-respect for Clemson and how AL walks on water.

[AllOrange67]

I see red flags with Kiper's hair

[Tiger80]

If I had more time I would go back 5-7 years to match Kiper's first round picks with their current status to see just how accurate he was in predicting boom or bust. I am real curious how accurate he is in predicting draft winners and losers (not necessarily exact matches - player X to Team Y in the 27th pick).

.... but that would take awhile to do correctly.

[whitiger]

No way to test him. he only says potential for bust. if they bust hey see I was right. If they don't then hey see told you they were top tier first rounders. Anyone can get it right if you guess both ways. Yes talking heads just talking gibberish.

[tigerphins]

Clemson fans need to stop taking this stuff so personally. If Deshaun didn't carry some degree of bust potential, he would go #1 overall, regardless of Myles Garrett.... but we all know that's not going to happen. Heck, there's no guarantee that the Browns will take Deshaun at #12 if he's there.

If the QB-needy Niners are as confident in Deshaun's future as Clemson fans are, they will be jumping at the chance to take him #2 overall. Ditto for the Bears at #3 who are in need of a franchise QB. If Deshaun lasts until the massively QB-needy Jets at #6, then that will mean no team shortly after them (Chargers, Bills, Saints, Browns, Cardinals) had enough confidence in Deshaun to trade ahead of NY for him.

Disclaimer: this isn't what I think should happen, but I am saying that it's certainly a possibility.... and hypothetically if it does happen, it will mean that all 8 QB-needy teams believe Deshaun carries enough bust potential to not be worth a top 6 pick or not be worth using the resources to trade into the top 5 for.

In the NFL, Deshaun won't have a superior roster around him like he did in college to help atone for his mistakes. In every regular season game the past 2 years, Clemson was the most talented team on the field regardless of Deshaun. In the NFL, however, the playing field is infinitely more even, and Deshaun will likely have a poor to average team around him. Hence, if he's as inconsistent during the regular season in the NFL as he was in college, it won't matter how great he plays in big games b/c there will be no big games to reach.

Case in point (and how NFL decision makers will be looking at it):

• Deshaun threw 2 INTs against Troy in a close 30-24 game. Thankfully the Clemson D kept those picks from turning into points and forced 4 turnovers of their own. In the NFL that could've just as easily been a loss.

• 3 INTs against Louisville (that turned in 14 Louisville points). Would've cost us the game if we were any other team.

• Deshaun's pick-6 against NC State should've cost us the game if not for a missed last-second 33 yard FG.

• 2 INTs against FSU that both led to Seminole TDs in a 37-34 game. Can't get away with that in the NFL.

• 3 INTs against Pitt cost Clemson the game.

• 2 early INTs against Ohio State in a close game. Clemson's stout D kept those from becoming OSU scores. Otherwise it could've just as easily been 14-10 OSU instead of 10-0 Clemson, and the game might've been completely different thereafter instead of a 31-0 shutout.

This is just not such an open-shut case as many seem to think.

[reynolds]

Originally Posted by tigerphins

Clemson fans need to stop taking this stuff so personally. If Deshaun didn't carry some degree of bust potential, he would go #1 overall, regardless of Myles Garrett.... but we all know that's not going to happen. Heck, there's no guarantee that the Browns will take Deshaun at #12 if he's there.

If the QB-needy Niners are as confident in Deshaun's future as Clemson fans are, they will be jumping at the chance to take him #2 overall. Ditto for the Bears at #3 who are in need of a franchise QB. If Deshaun lasts until the massively QB-needy Jets at #6, then that will mean no team shortly after them (Chargers, Bills, Saints, Browns, Cardinals) had enough confidence in Deshaun to trade ahead of NY for him.

Disclaimer: this isn't what I think should happen, but I am saying that it's certainly a possibility.... and hypothetically if it does happen, it will mean that all 8 QB-needy teams believe Deshaun carries enough bust potential to not be worth a top 6 pick or not be worth using the resources to trade into the top 5 for.

In the NFL, Deshaun won't have a superior roster around him like he did in college to help atone for his mistakes. In every regular season game the past 2 years, Clemson was the most talented team on the field regardless of Deshaun. In the NFL, however, the playing field is infinitely more even, and Deshaun will likely have a poor to average team around him. Hence, if he's as inconsistent during the regular season in the NFL as he was in college, it won't matter how great he plays in big games b/c there will be no big games to reach.

Case in point (and how NFL decision makers will be looking at it):

• Deshaun threw 2 INTs against Troy in a close 30-24 game. Thankfully the Clemson D kept those picks from turning into points and forced 4 turnovers of their own. In the NFL that could've just as easily been a loss.

• 3 INTs against Louisville (that turned in 14 Louisville points). Would've cost us the game if we were any other team.

• Deshaun's pick-6 against NC State should've cost us the game if not for a missed last-second 33 yard FG.

• 2 INTs against FSU that both led to Seminole TDs in a 37-34 game. Can't get away with that in the NFL.

• 3 INTs against Pitt cost Clemson the game.

• 2 early INTs against Ohio State in a close game. Clemson's stout D kept those from becoming OSU scores. Otherwise it could've just as easily been 14-10 OSU instead of 10-0 Clemson, and the game might've been completely different thereafter instead of a 31-0 shutout.

This is just not such an open-shut case as many seem to think.

+1 I agree.

I also agree that Kiper is batty.

[ClemsonGoose]

Interesting thought.

Rothlisberger has averaged 23.15 interceptions a season over his career and has never had less than 17 in season. (I'm sure someone will point out # of games in an NFL season vs. College to me here.) But that is still a lot of interceptions. Shoot Brady has even more at almost 27 per year. Two great quarterbacks that throw the ball alot.

Not saying DW4 is ready to dominate the NFL...but interceptions are also a product of the high risk/reward offense systems. DeShaun threw the ball ALOT...and yes our D was able to bail our team out of bad situations to give DeShaun the opportunity to put something together to win the game...that he did and that is something you want in your QB of the future...that is something you don't get with the other players in the draft.

[tigerphins]

Originally Posted by ClemsonGoose

Interesting thought.

Rothlisberger has averaged 23.15 interceptions a season over his career and has never had less than 17 in season. (I'm sure someone will point out # of games in an NFL season vs. College to me here.) But that is still a lot of interceptions. Shoot Brady has even more at almost 27 per year. Two great quarterbacks that throw the ball alot.

Not saying DW4 is ready to dominate the NFL...but interceptions are also a product of the high risk/reward offense systems. DeShaun threw the ball ALOT...and yes our D was able to bail our team out of bad situations to give DeShaun the opportunity to put something together to win the game...that he did and that is something you want in your QB of the future...that is something you don't get with the other players in the draft.

??
Correction- Roethlisberger averages 12 INTs and has thrown more than 16 INTs just once in his career.... and his INTs come against NFL players and NFL schemes.

Brady has never thrown more than 14 INTs in a single year, and has averaged 8 INT the past 7 years.

If Deshaun can throw 17 against college coverage schemes and inferior college players, while also boasting the best receiving group in the country, then what's to prevent him from throwing 25 in the NFL when things get even tougher? That's what scouts will be trying to answer when assessing his future.

Regardless of how often Deshaun threw the ball, NFL decision makers still want to see statistical improvement over the player's career, as well as better accuracy and better decision making as a whole. Deshaun's completion percentage, yards per attempt, passer rating, and INT rate were all worse than his fresh and sophomore seasons. Scouts will deem that a red flag, especially when you have the offensive weapons that Deshaun had, a good offensive line like he had, and a good defense behind his back like Deshaun had.

For comparison's sake, in his final season at Oregon, Marcus Mariota threw for as many yards & TDs as Deshaun but with 13 less INTs and he accomplished it with an inferior surrounding cast. He also did it in 130 less pass attempts (now that's efficiency, and the NFL loves efficiency). Mariota is also taller (6'4), faster and more athletic, and was coming off a Heisman season that saw him beat FSU 59-20 in the playoffs (after we lost to them 23-17). Mariota's FSU performance was better than any of Deshaun's 3 games against them.

Pat Mahomes was asked to throw much more often than Deshaun (49 attempts per game compared to Deshaun's 39) thanks to a terrible Texas Tech defense, and he had a worse offensive line and worse receivers, but he only threw 10 INTs to Deshaun's 17.

The INTs, the inconsistencies, the mistakes in reading coverage, the forced throws into coverage, and so on aren't just things that get swept under the rug. You can't just blatantly assume that they'll get corrected in the NFL when things get even tougher. You have to believe in Deshaun that he has it in him to do so. That's partly why some teams might prefer Trubisky to Deshaun. Trubisky attempted nearly as many passes per game as Deshaun but threw only 6 INTs on the season and had 10 games with 0 INTs. That's what the NFL wants to see. Watson on the other hand needed 2 full seasons to reach 10 games of 0 INTs.

[ExpatTiger]

https://youtu.be/pK_ABNHjbk4

[grerod3]

I like Watson a lot but if I was about to spend millions on him I would have red flags after last season. He is a winner and a leader but like others have said he had great talent around him that made him look better at times. People thought Boyd was the greatest to ever play at CU and I kept telling people that he was a great guy but would not make it in the NFL.

[Walhalla2Atlanta]

FYI - Kiper's 1st mock draft had Manziel going 1st overall in 2014. We all saw how that turned out. Even before his off-the-field issues sidelined him, he wasn't starting QB material and never would be.

[clemsonfan]

In all the talk about the Int's Watson threw this past season, let's not forget that around 5-6 of them were on the WR/TE. He would look a lot different to everyone had he 6 less interceptions count against him. That's not to say DW doesn't need to clean up his mistakes.

[denvertigrz]

The moron said the QB from ND that the panthers drafted was a bonified first rounder and franchise QB... so I'm glad he's saying these things about DW4 because truth be told nobody knows how well a player will translate to the NFL until the coach sees them in practice for the first time