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  #1  
Old 06-27-2020, 02:58 PM
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Robert Thorne MacRae Robert Thorne MacRae is offline
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Default Cases continue to climb in SC

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  #2  
Old 06-27-2020, 07:19 PM
Tiger80 Tiger80 is offline
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Post Re: Cases continue to climb in SC

Yikes
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  #3  
Old 06-28-2020, 06:53 PM
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Default Re: Cases continue to climb in SC

a probable death huh. and probable cases. guess i am missing something.
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  #4  
Old 06-28-2020, 06:55 PM
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Default Re: Cases continue to climb in SC

Does sc have that Apple tracing app out yet? Heard Clemson was developing it.
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  #5  
Old 06-29-2020, 09:23 AM
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Default Re: Cases continue to climb in SC

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Does sc have that Apple tracing app out yet? Heard Clemson was developing it.

People are refusing to wear masks when the evidence is overwhelming. People aren't going to down the app and let it "track" them. I wish apple and google would just agree to develop all aspects of it themselves and not allow people to disable it. Don't want covid tracing, go get a dumb phone. Free market solves that problem.
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Old 06-29-2020, 09:46 AM
tigerpawgt tigerpawgt is online now
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Default Re: Cases continue to climb in SC

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Originally Posted by Nebula View Post
People are refusing to wear masks when the evidence is overwhelming. People aren't going to down the app and let it "track" them. I wish apple and google would just agree to develop all aspects of it themselves and not allow people to disable it. Don't want covid tracing, go get a dumb phone. Free market solves that problem.
But then what to do about mobile tickets? Choices choices 🥺
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  #7  
Old 06-29-2020, 12:21 PM
LawStudent LawStudent is offline
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Default Re: Cases continue to climb in SC

We are testing like crazy right now. I see updates every day for a free clinic in Beaufort county. I drive past a site that provides testing, and it's got a line of cars stretching around the parking lot before 8am. These are obviously people who aren't in distress as they couldn't just sit in a long line of cars for hours.



We are capturing the asymptomatic and mild cases whereas we weren't before. The biggest number we need to pay attention to is the hospitalization rate and the deaths. I believe that there are roughly 8,000 beds in SC. That means about 10% is Covid-19.


This isn't about masks. It's about testing. As testing is identifying more mild cases, the death rate is continuing to plummet. South Carolina has been open, more or less, for over a month. We aren't seeing the death rate climb.
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Old 06-29-2020, 12:34 PM
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Default Re: Cases continue to climb in SC

No offense LawStudent, but we aren't testing like crazy in South Carolina. Maybe 1500 extra tests a day compared to 35-40 days ago.


Yeah we have a 10x increase in cases daily. Not to mention we are consistently 20%+ positive rates on tests.



Testing like crazy is when you are keeping your daily positive rate below 5% and we haven't been there in over a month.



So no, we aren't testing like crazy.



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  #9  
Old 06-29-2020, 01:30 PM
whitiger whitiger is offline
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Default Re: Cases continue to climb in SC

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No offense LawStudent, but we aren't testing like crazy in South Carolina. Maybe 1500 extra tests a day compared to 35-40 days ago.


Yeah we have a 10x increase in cases daily. Not to mention we are consistently 20%+ positive rates on tests.



Testing like crazy is when you are keeping your daily positive rate below 5% and we haven't been there in over a month.



So no, we aren't testing like crazy.



Yes this. Also per the SC DHEC website daily deaths peaked early May decreased until late May and has been oncreaseing since last week of May.
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Old 06-29-2020, 01:43 PM
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Default Re: Cases continue to climb in SC

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Yes this. Also per the SC DHEC website daily deaths peaked early May decreased until late May and has been oncreaseing since last week of May.

That's still a drastic upward trend of testing. Explain why we aren't seeing the hospitals being overrun. It's because we identifying more mild cases that we weren't before.



Take a look at this website: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


Look at the daily deaths in the US. It has steadily declined over the past 45 days even as we are reopening. That being said, I want to see what it looks like in another 2 weeks. That will tell us whether we are seeing the identification of more mild cases or just that the deaths were lagging.
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Old 06-29-2020, 04:00 PM
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Default Re: Cases continue to climb in SC

If it was just increased cases with a steady positive rate then yeah. It's likely related to more tests. But the increase in positive rate says it's not testing numbers.
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Old 06-29-2020, 04:15 PM
Tiger80 Tiger80 is offline
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Post Re: Cases continue to climb in SC

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That's still a drastic upward trend of testing. Explain why we aren't seeing the hospitals being overrun. It's because we identifying more mild cases that we weren't before.



Take a look at this website: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


Look at the daily deaths in the US. It has steadily declined over the past 45 days even as we are reopening. That being said, I want to see what it looks like in another 2 weeks. That will tell us whether we are seeing the identification of more mild cases or just that the deaths were lagging.
There are a lot of questions about the ownership and reliability of the data on that website.

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020...virus-mystery/
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  #13  
Old 06-29-2020, 04:32 PM
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Default Re: Cases continue to climb in SC

SC may not be testing like crazy, but a lot of other states are. In GA, we're testing anybody that wants one. I had to take one to go back to the office. The lab company mailed me a test, supervised it over Zoom, and had my results back 24 hours after I put it in the UPS dropbox. I went to lunch this weekend, and the drive-thru testing facility nearby had cars backed up as far you could see. They had police doing traffic control. I heard the lines were 1-2 hours long.

It would be nice if they would break down the total positive cases into categories such as no symptoms, mild symptoms, needed a doctor, needed a hospital, etc. Those are the stats people need to be focusing on and the ones that should be driving policy decisions.

It seems like the Italian doctors may have been onto something when they said the virus was weakening. That's a very encouraging thought.
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Old 06-29-2020, 04:36 PM
CU311 CU311 is offline
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Default Re: Cases continue to climb in SC

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Originally Posted by Gvegastiger49 View Post
If it was just increased cases with a steady positive rate then yeah. It's likely related to more tests. But the increase in positive rate says it's not testing numbers.
Wouldn't it go both ways? The more you test, the more likely you are to find people that are positive? People are being tested now that wouldn't have even qualified for a test before. If you open up testing to anyone regardless of whether or not they have symptoms, you're going to get more positives.
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  #15  
Old 06-30-2020, 06:26 AM
Nebula Nebula is online now
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Default Re: Cases continue to climb in SC

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Originally Posted by Gvegastiger49 View Post
If it was just increased cases with a steady positive rate then yeah. It's likely related to more tests. But the increase in positive rate says it's not testing numbers.

Correct, we are hitting 20% daily positivity rates. That means we aren't testing nearly enough.

LawStudent should go ask Texas how they are feeling right now. All their bravado of not shutting any busineses down, or we should just open and let people die if they die is disappearing.

OH, why aren't our hospitals being overrun in SC? The crescendo is building. Each covid patient is typically in the hospital for 2 weeks.

Look at how many people are testing positive every day. Upstate hospitals are at about 85% capacity.

As for the death rates, they don't start climbing fast until we run out of beds.



Don't get me wrong, I am not saying we are in for the worse case scenario. If people start doing what they should be doing, we will start to slow this down. But given people are refusing to wear masks, I dunno.
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  #16  
Old 06-30-2020, 06:49 AM
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Default Re: Cases continue to climb in SC

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Originally Posted by CU311 View Post
Wouldn't it go both ways? The more you test, the more likely you are to find people that are positive? People are being tested now that wouldn't have even qualified for a test before. If you open up testing to anyone regardless of whether or not they have symptoms, you're going to get more positives.
The more you test the more people you find have the virus. But we aren't talking gross numbers. We are talking percent positive. The more we test the more positives we are finding in relation to negatives and the overall population. The rate of positives is increasing which means the rate of infection is increasing.
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  #17  
Old 06-30-2020, 07:33 AM
CU311 CU311 is offline
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Default Re: Cases continue to climb in SC

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Originally Posted by Gvegastiger49 View Post
The more you test the more people you find have the virus. But we aren't talking gross numbers. We are talking percent positive. The more we test the more positives we are finding in relation to negatives and the overall population. The rate of positives is increasing which means the rate of infection is increasing.
Makes sense. Didn't full think that through before I asked. I read an article today saying it's mutated, and the mutation increased the infectiousness of the virus.
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  #18  
Old 06-30-2020, 08:49 AM
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Default Re: Cases continue to climb in SC

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Makes sense. Didn't full think that through before I asked. I read an article today saying it's mutated, and the mutation increased the infectiousness of the virus.
Saw the same thing that it has mutated to make it more infectious, but thankfully not more severe.

I am also seeing reports that hospitals are nearing capacity so there are higher hospitalizations. The death rate is declining probably because more young people infected and much better control in nursing homes and unlike the younger crowd (less than 40), seniors are not in denial, wearing masks, social distancing and taking other precautions..
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Old 06-30-2020, 10:01 AM
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Default Re: Cases continue to climb in SC

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Saw the same thing that it has mutated to make it more infectious, but thankfully not more severe.

I am also seeing reports that hospitals are nearing capacity so there are higher hospitalizations. The death rate is declining probably because more young people infected and much better control in nursing homes and unlike the younger crowd (less than 40), seniors are not in denial, wearing masks, social distancing and taking other precautions..
That article said something like 900 out of nearly 8000 beds are from the virus. That's like ~2% of the total cases. I'm curious what the severity of the cases are in the hospital as well. How many are there out of precaution due to an underlying health issue? How many are actually getting treatment that required a hospital? Are 900 people on ventilators right now?

Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying this isn't serious. I'm genuinely curious what the data that isn't being reported looks like.
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  #20  
Old 06-30-2020, 11:06 AM
clemsson clemsson is online now
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Default Re: Cases continue to climb in SC

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There are a lot of questions about the ownership and reliability of the data on that website.

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020...virus-mystery/
Makes me laugh that you quested the reliability of the site then you linked CNN
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